Future Markets in the Future have no Future

When all is said and one, people have no way of extrapolating out from one reality and predicting what another reality will be like. Think of the poor Kremlinologists who spent countless hours studying the Soviet press and painstakingly noting the seating arrangements in pictures form official functions and size of official pictures and slight discrepancies in different printed versions of speeches by those in the Kremlin in order to predict what the USSR would do next… and they were almost never right.

Area specialists had 44 years to theorize about what would happen when Iron Curtain socialism finally fell and almost none of the theories panned out. Once the Soviet Union announced it wouldn’t engage militarily in the satellite countries reality changed and none of the theories that relied on Soviet militarism in Europe were worth anything.

That’s why I’m skeptical of exact predictions whether about climate change or demographic dynamics or political realignment. Once a key event takes place that fundamentally changes the dynamics that predictions are necessarily based on then all bets are off and all people can do is be ready.

Of course it’s a good idea to have ideas about what might happen and how but it’s dangerous to get too attached to any of them – when the status quo fundamentally changes they’re all so much smoke and memories.

Be prepared to be surprised and to get over the surprise in a hurry….

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